ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ

The Effect of Management Forecast Quality on Investment Efficiency Considering the Role of Ownership Structure

ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ، ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﮐﯿﻔﯿﺖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﻘﺶ ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﮕﺮي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ اﺳﺖ. ﺟﺎﻣﻌﻪ آﻣﺎري ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺷﺮﮐﺖﻫﺎي ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ، دادهﻫـﺎي 129 ﺷﺮﮐﺖ در ﺑﺎزه زﻣﺎﻧﯽ ﺳﺎلﻫﺎي 1388 اﻟﯽ 1397، ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي ﻣﺪل رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﭼﻨﺪﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮه ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. دادهﻫﺎ از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺳﺎﯾﺖ ﮐﺪال و ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار رهآورد ﻧﻮﯾﻦ ﻧﺴﺨﻪ 3 اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج و ﺑﻪوﺳﯿﻠﻪ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار اﯾﻮﯾﻮز ﻧﺴﺨﻪ 11 ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪوﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻗﺒﻞ از ﺑﺮازش ﻣﺪلﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از آزﻣﻮنﻫﺎي F- ﻟﯿﻤﺮ و ﻫﺎﺳﻤﻦ، روش دادهﻫﺎي ﺗﺎﺑﻠﻮﯾﯽ ﺑﺎ اﺛﺮات ﺛﺎﺑﺖ، ﺑﺮاي آزﻣﻮن ﻣﺪلﻫﺎ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪ. ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ از ﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺎﻫﯿﺖ، از ﻧﻮع ﻫﻤﺒﺴﺘﮕﯽ و از ﻟﺤﺎظ ﻫﺪف، ﮐﺎرﺑﺮدي اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ ﻧﻬﺎدي و ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ، ﺑﺮاي ﺳﻨﺠﺶ ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ، اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﯾﻦ ﺑﻮد ﮐﻪ دﻗﺖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﺜﺒﺖ و ﻣﻌﻨﺎدار ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري دارد. ﺑﻪﻋﻼوه، ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ ﻧﻬﺎدي، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ دﻗﺖ ﭘﯿﺶ-ﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري را ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻧﻤﯽﮐﻨﺪ؛ اﻣﺎ ﺗﻤﺮﮐﺰ ﻣﺎﻟﮑﯿﺖ، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ دﻗﺖ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺑﺮ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاري را ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ.

The purpose of this paper was to investigate the Effect of Management Forecast Quality on investment efficiency considering the Moderating role of ownership structure. The statistical population of the research is listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange. In this regard, the data of 129 companies in the period between 2009 to 2018, has been investigated by applying a multivariate regression model. Data has been extracted from Codal site and Rahaward software Version 3. The data were analyzed by eviews software version 11. Before testing the research models, using F-Limer and Hausman tests, panel data with fixed effects were selected for testing the models. The present study is of a correlational nature and in terms of purpose, it is an applied research. In this study, institutional ownership and ownership concentration were used to measure ownership structure. The results indicated that earnings Forecast accuracy has a positive and significant effect on investment Efficiency. In addition, institutional ownership does not strengthen the relationship between earnings Forecast accuracy and investment efficiency. But the ownership concentration moderates the effect of earnings Forecast accuracy on investment efficiency.