راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ اﺟﺒﺎري ﺳﻮدو ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺑﺎ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪي ﻏﯿﺮﻋﺎدي

Relationship between Management Profit Forecasting Error and Adjustment of Profit Forecast with Corporate Accruals

ﺳﻮد ﺧﺎﻟﺺ و ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻼت آن از ﺑﺎارزشﺗﺮﯾﻦ اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎدﻫﺴﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪﮔﺬاراﻧﺎﺳﺖ. اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻬﺒﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل ﭘﺎﺳﺦ ﺑﻪ اﯾﻦ ﺳﻮال اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ آﯾﺎ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺷﺮﮐﺖ )اﺑﻬﺎم ﯾﺎ ﻧﺎﺗﻮاﻧﯽ در درك اﻃﻼﻋﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي( ﺑﺮ راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺧﻄﺎي ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ و ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ اﺛﺮ ﮔﺬار اﺳﺖ ﯾﺎ ﺧﯿﺮ؟ﺑﺪﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر اﺑﺘﺪا راﺑﻄﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪﯾﻐﯿﺮﻋﺎدي و ﺟﻤﻊ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪي و ﺧﻄﺎ و ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد، آزﻣﻮن و ﺳﭙﺲ ﺗﺎﺛﯿﺮ اﺑﻬﺎم و ﻧﺎﺗﻮاﻧﯽ ﺷﺮﮐﺘﯽ در درك اﻃﻼﻋﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺮ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻓﻮق ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر آزﻣﻮن ﻓﺮﺿﯿﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ از رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮن ﭼﻨﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮه ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ91 ﺷﺮﮐﺖ ﭘﺬﯾﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه در ﺑﻮرس اوراق ﺑﻬﺎدار ﺗﻬﺮان ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ درﮔﺮدش و اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪي ﻏﯿﺮﻋﺎدي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ در ﮔﺮدش ﺑﺎﺧﻄﺎي ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ ﺳﻮد ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ وﺟﻮد دارد،اﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ در ﮔﺮدش و اﻗﻼم ﺗﻌﻬﺪي ﻏﯿﺮﻋﺎدي ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ در ﮔﺮدش ﺑﺎﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﭘﯿﺶﺑﯿﻨﯽ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﻌﮑﻮس وﺟﻮد دارد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺎﺗﻮاﻧﯽ در درك اﻃﻼﻋﺎت اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي اﯾﻦ راﺑﻄﻪ را ﺗﻘﻮﯾﺖ ﻣﯽﮐﻨﺪ در ﺣﺎﻟﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ اﺑﻬﺎم ﺑﺮ راﺑﻄﻪ ﻣﺬﮐﻮر اﺛﺮ ﮔﺬار ﻧﻤﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ.

Net profit and its adjustments are among the most valuable information used by investors. This study seeks to answer the question whether company conditions (ambiguity or inability to understand economic information) affect the relationship between forecasting error and adjustment of profit forecasting by management or not? For this purpose, first, the relationship between accruals (abnormal) and error and adjustment of profit forecast, test and then the effect of ambiguity and inability to understand economic information on the above relationship is examined. The research sample includes 91 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Findings indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between working capital accruals and abnormal working capital accruals with management forecast error, but there is a negative relationship between working capital accruals and abnormal working capital accruals wThere is significance. Also, conditions of ambiguity did not affect this relationship, but the inability to understand economic information strengthens this relationship.ith negative forecast and adjustment.