مقايسه معيار قطعي N–1 و معيار احتمالاتي قطع بار در برنامه‌ريزي توسعه شبكه انتقال

Economical Evaluation of N–1 Safe Criterion and Load Shedding Index in Transmission System Expansion Planning

ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﯾﮏ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﻬﻢ در ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺷﺒﮑﻪ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل )TNEP( اﺳﺖ. اﮐﺜﺮ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﺎت در ﻣﻮرد TNEP از ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﻣﻨﯿﺖ 1-N ﺑﺮاي ﻓﺮﻣﻮلﺑﻨﺪي ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻣﯽﮐﻨﻨﺪ، درﺣﺎﻟﯽﮐﻪ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﮐﻤﯽ از آﻧﻬﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺑﺎرزداﯾﯽ )LS( ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮآورده ﮐﺮدن ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﻣﺼﺮفﮐﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎن را در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪاﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ، ﯾﮏ ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺮاي روﺷﻦ ﺷﺪن اﯾﻨﮑﻪ ﮐﺪامﯾﮏ از اﯾﻦ ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎي ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﺎت ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐﺗﺮ اﺳﺖ، ﺿﺮوري اﺳﺖ. در اﯾﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ ﺳﻌﯽ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ اﯾﻦ ﺷﺎﺧﺺﻫﺎي ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺑﺎ ﯾﮑﺪﯾﮕﺮ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﺷﻮد ﮐﻪ ﮐﺪامﯾﮏ از آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﯾﮏ ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ اﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﻗﺘﺼﺎديﺗﺮ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ. ﻫﺪف اﯾﻦ اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺧﻄﻮط اﻧﺘﻘﺎل و ﭘﺴﺖﻫﺎ، ﺗﻠﻔﺎت ﺷﺒﮑﻪ و ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺑﺎ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﻧﮕﻬﺪاري و ﺗﻌﻤﯿﺮ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻫﺰﯾﻨﻪ ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻨﯽ ﺧﻄﻮط ﻓﺮﺳﻮده، ﻣﺼﺎﻟﺤﻪ اﯾﺠﺎد ﺷﻮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ در ﻗﺪم ﺑﻌﺪي ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰودن ﻗﯿﻮد ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺑﻪ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﻪ ﻗﯿﻮد ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ آﻧﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﺑﺮ روي ﻣﻘﺪار ﺑﻬﯿﻨﮕﯽ ﺗﺎﺑﻊ ﻫﺪف ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺪﯾﺪﺗﺮ ﺷﺪن ﻗﯿﻮد ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن اﻧﺠﺎم ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاي ﻓﺮﻣﻮلﺑﻨﺪي ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن ﺷﺒﮑﻪ، اﺑﺘﺪا ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﻣﻨﯿﺖ ﻗﻄﻌﯽ 1-N ﺑﻪﮐﺎر ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺤﺚ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ، ﺳﭙﺲ ﻣﻌﯿﺎر 1-N ﺑﺎ ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﺑﺎرزداﯾﯽ در ﻓﺮﻣﻮل TNEP ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺰﯾﻦ ﺷﺪ و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺑﺎ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺪل اول ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ آﻧﺎﻟﯿﺰ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺖ ﺑﺮ روي ﻗﯿﻮد ﻗﺎﺑﻠﯿﺖ اﻃﻤﯿﻨﺎن در ﺣﺎﻟﺖ دوم اﻧﺠﺎم و ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻫﺮ ﺳﻪ ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺑﺎﻫﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺷﺪهاﻧﺪ. دو ﻣﺪل TNEP روي ﺷﺒﮑﻪ 6 ﺑﺎس ﻣﻌﺮوف ﮔﺎرور و اﯾﻦ دو ﻣﺪل ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮاه ﻣﺪل ﺳﻮم ﺑﺮ روي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﻢ ﺗﺴﺖ 24 ﺑﺎس IEEE RTS آزﻣﺎﯾﺶ ﺷﺪه اﻧﺪ.

Transmission system reliability is an important issue in transmission network expansion planning (TNEP). Most of papers and research about TNEP employed N–1 safe criterion to formulate the transmission reliability, while a few of them have considered load shedding (LS) index to meet the required reliability of consumers for electric demand. Thus, an economic evaluation is necessary to clear which of these reliability criteria is more appropriate for transmission expansion planning studies. This paper tries to compare these reliability indices to each other and show that which of them are more economic and better for expansion planning of a transmission system. The aim is to compromise between transmission lines and substations expansion cost, network losses, and system reliability considering maintenance and repair expenses as well as replacement cost of timeworn lines. To formulate the network reliability, first deterministic reliability criterion of N–1 was employed and embedded in the problem formulation and results were discussed, then N–1 criterion was replaced by probabilistic reliability index of load shedding in TNEP formulation and the results were compared with results of first model. Both of TNEP models are tested on well known as Garver’s 6-bus network and IEEE reliability 24-bus test system (IEEE RTS).