ﺗﺒﯿﯿﻦ وﻓﺎداري ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي اﺳﺘﺎن زﻧﺠﺎن ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد آﯾﻨﺪه ﻧﮕﺎري

Research Paper Explaining the loyalty of tourism in Zanjan province with a futuristic approach

ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﭼﻨﺪ دﻫﻪ اﺧﯿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﯾﮑﯽ از ﺑﺰرﮔﺘﺮﯾﻦ و ﻣﺘﻨﻮعﺗﺮﯾﻦ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﻫﺎ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ و ﮐﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﺟﻬﺎن اﯾﻦ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﭘﻮﯾﺎ را ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ ﻣﻨﺒﻊ درآﻣﺪ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ در ﻧﻈﺮ دارﻧﺪ و در ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﯿﺮي از اﯾﻦ ﺻﻨﻌﺖ ﺑﻪ رﻗﺎﺑﺘﯽ ﺗﻨﮕﺎﺗﻨﮓ ﻣﯽ ﭘﺮدازﻧﺪ، در اﯾﻦ ﺟﺮﮔﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﮐﺴﺐ ﻣﻮﻓﻘﯿﺖ و ﺑﻬﺮهﺑﺮداري از ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي، ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﺳﻌﯽ در ﭘﯿﺎدهﺳﺎزي ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺒﺪﯾﻞ ﺷﺪن ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﮐﻪ ﺧﻮد ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ وﻓﺎداري ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺮاﯾﻦ اﺳﺎس ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺳﻌﯽ داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ ﺑﺎ روﯾﮑﺮد آﯾﻨﺪهﻧﮕﺎري وﺿﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎي اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ وﻓﺎداري ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي اﺳﺘﺎن زﻧﺠﺎن ر ا ﻣﻮرد ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار دﻫﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺸﺨﺺﺳﺎزي ﭼﺸﻢ اﻧﺪاز وﻓﺎداري، ﺑﺴﺘﺮ ﺷﻔﺎف ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢﮔﯿﺮي ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺴﺌﻮﻻن اﯾﺠﺎد ﮔﺮدد و ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي در ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب وﻓﺎداري ﻗﺮار ﮔﯿﺮد. ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻧﯿﺰ از 92 ﺷﺎﺧﺺ در 16 ﺑﻌﺪ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺠﺰﯾﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار Micmac ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ، ﺟﺎﯾﮕﺎه و اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﮐﻠﯿﺪي اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ و از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ScenarioWizard ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎ ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻻزم ﺑﻪ ﺗﻮﺿﯿﺢ اﺳﺖ از آﻧﺠﺎ ﮐﻪ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺧﺒﺮه ﻣﺤﻮر ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ، ﺑﺮاي اﯾﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﻧﯿﺰ ﻧﻤﻮﻧﻪ ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺎن ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از روش) ﻫﺪﻓﻤﻨﺪ( ﮔﻠﻮﻟﻪ ﺑﺮﻓﯽ20 ﻧﻔﺮ اﻧﺘﺨﺎب ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﻧﺸﺎن داده اﺳﺖ ﮐﻪ وﻓﺎداري ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي اﺳﺘﺎن زﻧﺠﺎن وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﺷﮑﻨﻨﺪهاي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و اﻟﮕﻮي آن در ﻣﺤﯿﻂ ﻧﺮماﻓﺰار ﻣﯿﮏ ﻣﮏ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻗﻄﺮي ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎﻧﮕﺮ وﺿﻌﯿﺖ ﻧﺎﭘﺎﯾﺪار ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ ، ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺮج از ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ وﯾﺰارد ﺑﯿﺎﻧﮕﺮ 43 ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﺑﻮده ﮐﻪ اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺗﺤﻘﻖ وﺿﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎي ﻧﺎﻣﻄﻠﻮب ﺑﺎ وﯾﮋﮔﯽﻫﺎي )ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي ﺑﻪ روز ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ و ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺎ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎرﮔﯿﺮي ﻧﯿﺮوﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺺ ﮐﻢ ﺷﺪه، در ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺘﻨﻮع ﺳﺎزي ﺗﻔﺮﺟﮕﺎهﻫﺎ و ﻋﺮﺿﻪ ﺧﺪﻣﺎت ﻣﺘﻔﺎوت ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮان وﺟﻮد ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﺑﯽ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﯽ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﮔﺬاري روﯾﺪادﻫﺎ و ﺟﺸﻨﻮارهﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻧﺎﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﺎﻧﺪن آﺛﺎر و ﺟﺎذﺑﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﺑﺮﻧﺪﻫﺎي اﺳﺘﺎن و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﺎﻧﻊ ﺑﺮون رﻓﺖ ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي و وﻣﺘﻌﺎﻗﺒﺎ وﻓﺎداري ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮي از وﺿﻌﯿﺖ رﮐﻮد ﺧﻮد ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ، ﮐﻪ در ﻧﻬﺎﯾﺖ ﯾﮏ ﻓﻀﺎي ﮔﺮدﺷﮕﺮ ﺳﺘﯿﺰ را ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ.( ﺑﯿﺶ از دﯾﮕﺮ وﺿﻌﯿﺖﻫﺎ ﺑﻮده اﺳﺖ

Tourism has become one of the world's largest and most diverse industry in recent decades, an‎d most countries in the world have chosen this dynamic industry as their main source of income an‎d compete closely in the use of this industry, In this jirga, in order to achieve success and take advantage of more tourism benefits, the regions are trying to implement various policies to become a tourist destination. Which itself requires the loyalty of tourists. Accordingly, the present study has tried Examine the possible situations of tourism loyalty in Zanjan province with a futuristic approach In order to create a clear platform for decision-making for officials by defining the perspective of loyalty an‎d tourism to be on the desired path of loyalty. For this purpose, 92 indicators in 16 dimensions have been used. For analysis, Micmac software has been used to analyze the status, position and extract key factors. an‎d ScenarioWizard software is used to extract scenarios. It is necessary to explain that since the research sample was expert-centered, for this purpose, the sample of experts was selected using the (targeted) method of snowball ¬20 people. The results of the research show that the tourism loyalty of Zanjan province has a fragile situation and its pattern in the Mick Mac software environment is diagonal, which indicates an unstable situation. Also, the results extracted from the Wizard scenario indicate 43 possible scenarios. That the possibility of unfavorable situations with characteristics (due to the issue of tourism up to date has decreased and consequently the use of specialized personnel has decreased, as a result of proper planning to diversify the resorts and provide different services needed by tourists) Also, neglecting to hold events and festivals has left the works and attractions, brands of the province unknown, as well as hindering the exit of tourism and consequently the loyalty of tourism from its stagnation, which ultimately has created an anti-tourist atmosphere. Has been.) Has been more than other situations.