ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﺛﺮﺑﺨﺸﯽ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ و ﻏﯿﺮﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ آب آﺑﯿﺎري ﺟﻬﺖ ﺳﺎزﮔﺎري ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ: ﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﻣﺪل ﻫﯿﺪرو- اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﻣﻮردي: ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﺮاب

Investigating the Price and Non-price Scenarios Impacts of Irrigation Water for Adaptation of Climate Change: Using Hydro-economic Model (Case Study: Sarab County)

اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ و ﻋﺮﺿﻪي ﻣﺤﺪود آب در اﺛﺮ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ، ﻋﺪم ﺗﻌﺎدل ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ را در ﺑﺴﯿﺎري از دﺷﺖﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﻮر ﺑﻪ دﻧﺒﺎل داﺷﺘﻪ و ﺿﺮورت اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖﻫﺎي ﮐﺎرآﻣﺪ ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ آب را ﻣﻄﺮح ﺳﺎﺧﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺪﯾﺮﯾﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب ﻧﯿﺎزﻣﻨﺪ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ و اﺛﺮات ﻣﺘﻘﺎﺑﻠﯽ ﮐﻪ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺖﻫﺎي اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ آب و زﻣﯿﻦ وﺟﻮد دارد، ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ. ﻟﺬا ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﯽ و ﮐﺎرﺑﺮد ﻣﺪل ﻫﯿﺪرو-اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﯽ ﺑﺮ رﯾﺴﮏ در ارزﯾﺎﺑﯽ اﺛﺮ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ و ﻏﯿﺮﻗﯿﻤﺘﯽ آب آﺑﯿﺎري ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺳﺎزﮔﺎري ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﯽﭘﺮدازد. در ﺑﺨﺶ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﺪل از اﻟﮕﻮي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪرﯾﺰي رﯾﺎﺿﯽ درﺟﻪ دوم ﺗﻮأم ﺑﺎ رﯾﺴﮏ )QRP( و در ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﯿﺪروﻟﻮژﯾﮑﯽ از ﻣﺪل WEAP-MABIA اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. دادهﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻧﯿﺎز از ﻃﺮﯾﻖ ﺗﮑﻤﯿﻞ 210 ﭘﺮﺳﺸﻨﺎﻣﻪ از ﮐﺸﺎورزان ﺷﻬﺮﺳﺘﺎن ﺳﺮاب ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﯾﮏ از ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﻣﻬﻢ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺣﻮﺿﻪ آﺟﯽﭼﺎي، در ﺳﺎل 1397 ﺟﻤﻊآوري ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ. ﺑﺮاي ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ دادهﻫﺎي روزاﻧﻪ اﻗﻠﯿﻤﯽ از ﻣﺪل HadCM3 و رﯾﺰﻣﻘﯿﺎسﺳﺎزي LARS-WG ﺗﺤﺖ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر A2 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﻧﺘﺎﯾﺞ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ وﻗﻮع ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﯿﺰان آب در دﺳﺘﺮس ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ 18/2 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ و ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻄﺢ زﯾﺮﮐﺸﺖ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻت ﺑﺎ ﻧﯿﺎز آﺑﯽ ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮ )ﯾﻮﻧﺠﻪ، ﺳﯿﺐزﻣﯿﻨﯽ و ﻟﻮﺑﯿﺎ( ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد. ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 20 و 40 درﺻﺪي ﻗﯿﻤﺖ آب آﺑﯿﺎري ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﺳﺒﺐ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ 5/9 و 7/3 درﺻﺪي ﻣﯿﺰان آب در دﺳﺘﺮس ﺷﺪه و ﺑﺎ اﻋﻤﺎل اﯾﻦ ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﺳﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزان ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 8/4 و 10/3 درﺻﺪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﯽﯾﺎﺑﺪ. اﺟﺮاي ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ 30 ،20 و 40 ﺳﻬﻢ آب ﺑﺨﺶ ﮐﺸﺎورزي ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺳﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزان ﺑﻪ اﻧﺪازه 24/3 ،19/3 و 37/3 درﺻﺪ ﻣﯽﮔﺮدد ﮐﻪ ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪه ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻣﺤﺴﻮس ﺳﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزان ﻣﯽﺷﻮد. ﺑﺎ ﺑﻬﺒﻮد راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ﺑﻪ ﻣﯿﺰان 25 و 35 درﺻﺪ، ﺳﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزان ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 5/2 و 7/5 درﺻﺪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﺰان آب در دﺳﺘﺮس 11/1 و 14/4 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. از اﯾﻦرو ﭘﯿﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﯽﺷﻮد ﺑﺎ ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮدن راﻧﺪﻣﺎن آﺑﯿﺎري ﮐﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺗﮑﻨﻮﻟﻮژي آﺑﯿﺎري ﻫﻤﺮاه ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﺪ، ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻﺗﯽ ﮐﻪ داراي ﺻﺮﻓﻪﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺎﻻ و ﻣﺼﺮف آب زﯾﺎد ﻣﯽﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ را ﺑﻪ اﻟﮕﻮي ﮐﺸﺖ اﺿﺎﻓﻪ ﻧﻤﻮده و ﺳﻮد ﮐﺸﺎورزان در ﺣﻮﺿﻪ را اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ داد.

Climate change is one of the main issues in the 21st century and has been felt in many regions of world. The greatest impact of climate change is on the water resource sector. Ajichay, as one of the main agricultural areas and a source of water consumption around the Lake Urmia, has lost its efficiency as the supplier of water and is considered as the center of crisis due to changes in the climate, lack of precipitation, and human factors. Therefore, the current study aims to investigate the impacts of water resources management scenarios for adaptation of climate change on water resources, cropping patterns and profits of farmers using a hydroeconomic model. The HadCM3 model and LARS-WG downscaling were used to generate daily climatic data under the emissions of A2 scenario. The results showed that the average rainfall decreased in 38% under A2 emission scenario during 2018-2050 period. In the next period of 2018- 2050, the average annual temperature will also increase by 2.5 °C compared to the baseline period. Changes in the cropping area due to climate change show that among the studied crops, bean had the highest reduction in cultivation, which stemmed from its high-water requirement. Results showed the profit in all the sub-bases had a rise after increasing irrigation efficiency scenario. Thus, applying increasing efficiency scenario, in addition to more useful and efficient use of allocated water, will also increase farmers' profits which offer a better situation than the other scenarios. Overall, the findings of the current study revealed that without changing the management strategies there would be a considerable reduction in water resource in near future. The analysis of scenarios revealed that policies alone cannot compensate for water problems and there is a need for plenty of scenario for optimum results.