كليدواژه :
ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي , ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت داﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﯽ , ﺧﺮﯾﺪ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي , ﻣﻌﺎﻓﯿﺖ از ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي
چكيده فارسي :
ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ: دوره ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳـﺮﺑﺎزي ﻣﻌﻤـﻮﻻً ﺑـﻪ دوره اي اﻃـﻼق ﻣـ ﯽ ﮔـﺮدد ﮐـﻪ ﺟﻮاﻧـﺎن ، ﺑـ ﻪ ﺧﺼـﻮص زﻣـﺎﻧﯽ ﮐــﻪ در اوج ﺗﻮاﻧــﺎﯾﯽ ﯾــﺎدﮔﯿﺮي ﻣــﯽ ﺑﺎﺷــﻨﺪ، ﺑــﻪ ﻣﻨﻈــﻮر ﮔﺬراﻧــﺪن اﯾــﻦ دوره ﮐــﻪ اﺟﺒــﺎري ﻣــ ﯽ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﻓﺮاﺧﻮاﻧــﺪه ﻣــﯽ ﺷــﻮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨــﺎﺑﺮاﯾﻦ اﻧﺘﻈــﺎر ﻣــﯽ رود ﮐــﻪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿــﺎ ﺑــﺮاي ﺗﺤﺼــﯿﻼت ﺑــﺎﻻﺗﺮ در اﯾــﻦ دﺳــﺘﻪ از اﻓـﺮاد ﺟﺎﻣﻌـﻪ ﮐــﺎﻫﺶ ﯾﺎﺑـﺪ ﮐــﻪ اﯾـﻦ ﺧــﻮد ﻣﻮﺟـﺐ ﮐـﺎﻫﺶ ﻣﻬــﺎرت ﻫـﺎ و ﺗــﺄﺧ ﯿﺮ در ورود ﺳـﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ ﻫــﺎي اﻧﺴــﺎﻧﯽ ﺑــﻪ ﺑــﺎزار ﮐــﺎر ﻣــﯽ ﺷــﻮد. از ﻃــﺮف دﯾﮕــﺮ، ﻗﺒــﻮﻟﯽ در داﻧﺸــﮕﺎه اﮔﺮﭼــﻪ ﻣﻤﮑــﻦ اﺳــﺖ ﻣــﺎﻧﻊ از ﻓﺮاﺧــﻮاﻧﯽ و اﻋــﺰام ﻣﺸــﻤﻮﻻن ﺑــﻪ ﺧــ ﺪﻣﺖ ﺳــﺮﺑﺎزي ﺷــﻮد، اﻣــﺎ اﯾــﻦ اﻣــﺮ ﻃﺒﯿﻌﺘــ ﺎً ﻣﻮﺟــﺐ اﻓــﺰاﯾﺶ ﺑﯿﺶ ازﺣـﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿـﺎ در ورود ﺑـﻪ داﻧﺸـﮕﺎه ﻫـﺎ ﺑـﺮاي ﺗﺤﺼـﯿﻼت ﺑـﺎﻻﺗﺮ ﻣـﯽ ﮔـﺮدد ﮐـﻪ ﺧـﻮد ﻣﻮﺟـﺐ ﺑـﺮوز ﻣﺸﮑﻼﺗﯽ از ﻗﺒﯿﻞ ﮐﻤﺒﻮد اﻣﮑﺎﻧﺎت آﻣﻮزﺷـﯽ ﻣـﯽ ﺷـﻮد . در اﯾـﻦ ﭘـﮋوﻫﺶ اﺛـﺮ ﺧـﺪﻣﺖ ﺳـﺮﺑﺎزي ﺑـﺮ روي ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت داﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﯽ و اﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﺑﻪ دﺳﺖ آوردن ﻣﺪارك داﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﯽ ﻣﻮردﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. روش: در اﯾــﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿــﻖ ﺑــﻪ ﻣﻨﻈــﻮر ﺑﺮرﺳــﯽ اﺛــﺮ، اﻓــﺮاد را ﺑــﻪ دو ﮔــﺮوه ﯾﻌﻨــﯽ ﮔﺮوﻫــﯽ ﮐــﻪ ﺑــﻪ ﺧــﺪﻣﺖ اﻋــﺰام ﺷــﺪه اﻧــﺪ و ﮔﺮوﻫــﯽ ﮐــﻪ از ﺧــﺪﻣﺖ ﻣﻌــﺎف ﺷــﺪه اﻧــﺪ ﺗﻘﺴــﯿﻢ و از روش ﻫــﺎي ﺑــﺮآورد داده ﻫــﺎي آﻣـﺎري ﺑــﺮاي ﺗﺨﻤــﯿﻦ اﺛــﺮ اﺳــﺘﻔﺎده ﺷــﺪ. داده ﻫـﺎي ﻣﻮرداﺳــﺘﻔﺎده در اﯾــﻦ ﭘــﮋوﻫﺶ، ﺷــﺎﻣﻞ داده ﻫــﺎﯾﯽ ﻣﯽ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ ﮐـﻪ از ﻃﺮﯾـﻖ آﻣـﺎرﮔﯿﺮي در ﺳـﻪ اﺳـﺘﺎن ﻣﺎزﻧـﺪران، ﺧﻮزﺳـﺘﺎن و ﺗﻬـﺮان ﮔـﺮدآوري ﺷـﺪه اﻧـﺪ. ﻧﺤــﻮه ﺟﻤــﻊ آوري اﯾــﻦ داده ﻫــﺎ ﺑــﻪ اﯾــﻦ ﺻــﻮرت ﻣــﯽ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﮐــﻪ ﯾــﮏ ﺳــﺮي از داده ﻫــﺎي ﮐﻠــﯽ ﺗﻮﺳــﻂ ﭘﺮﺳــﺶ ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﯿﻢ از اﻓــﺮاد، از ﻃﺮﯾــﻖ ﭘﺮﺳﺸــﻨﺎﻣﻪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨــﯿﻦ ﺑــﺎ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌــﻪ ﺑــﻪ ادار ات و ﻣﺮاﮐــﺰ ﮐﺎرﯾــﺎﺑﯽ ﺗﻬﯿــﻪ ﮔﺮدﯾــﺪ. راﻫﺒــﺮد ﺑــﻪ ﮐــﺎر ﮔﺮﻓﺘــﻪ ﺷــﺪه در ﺑــﺮآورد داده ﻫــﺎ در اﯾــﻦ ﭘــﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑــﺮ اﺳــﺎس ﻃﺮاﺣــﯽ رﮔﺮﺳﯿﻮﻧﯽ ﻧﺎﭘﯿﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﯾﺎ ﺑﻪ اﺧﺘﺼﺎر RD اﺳﺖ.
ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪﻫﺎ: ﯾﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ ﻧﺸﺎن داد ﮐﻪ اﺛﺮ ﺧـﺪﻣﺖ ﺳـﺮﺑﺎزي ﺑـﺮ روي اﺣﺘﻤـﺎل داﺷـﺘﻦ ﯾـﮏ ﻣـﺪرك داﻧﺸـﮕﺎﻫﯽ ﻣﺜﺒـﺖ ﺑـﻮده و ﻣﯿـﺰان ﻓـﺎرغ اﻟﺘﺤﺼـﯿﻼن داﻧﺸــﮕﺎﻫﯽ را اﻓـﺰاﯾﺶ ﻣـﯽ دﻫـﺪ و در ﻣﻘﺎﺑـﻞ اﻓـﺮادي را ﮐــﻪ از ﻣﻌﺎﻓﯿﺖ داﺋﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺖ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﮐﺮده اﻧﺪ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﮔﺮاﯾﺶ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت در آﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﺸﺎﻫﺪه ﻣﯽ ﺷﻮد.
ﻧﺘﯿﺠـﻪ ﮔﯿـﺮي: ﻧﺘـﺎﯾﺞ ﭘـﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸـﺎن ﻣــﯽ دﻫـﺪ ﺧﺮﯾـﺪ ﺧـﺪﻣﺖ ﺳـﺮﺑﺎزي و درﻧﺘﯿﺠـﻪ ﻣﻌـﺎف ﺷــﺪن از ﺧﺪﻣﺖ در ﺳﺎل ﻫﺎي ﺑﯿﻦ 1377 ﺗﺎ 1380 ﻣﻨﺠﺮ ﺑﻪ ﮐﺎﻫﺶ ﺗﺤﺼﯿﻼت داﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﯽ اﻓﺮاد ﮔﺮدﯾﺪ.
چكيده لاتين :
Introduction: Military service is usually a period in which young people, especially when they are at the peak of their learning ability, they are called to spend period of this compulsory course. Hence, it is expected to decrease the demand for higher education in this group of people, which in turn reduces skills and delays the entry of human capital into the labor market. On the other hand, admission to the university, although it may prevent conscripts from being called up for military service, naturally increases the demand for higher education, which in turn create problems such as a lack of educational facilities. In this research, it has been investigated the effect of military service on college education and the possibility of obtaining university degrees.
Method: In this research, in order to investigating the effect, individuals were divided into two groups, namely the group that was sent to service and the group that were exempted from service, and to estimate the effect it were used from statistical data estimation methods. The data used in this study include data that have been collected through statistics in three provinces of Mazandaran, Khuzestan and Tehran. The method of collecting this data is that a series of general data were prepared by direct questioning of individuals, through a questionnaire and also by referring to employment offices and centers. The strategy used in estimating the data in this research is based on discontinuous regression design or RD for short.
Results: The results indicated that the effect of military service on the probability of having a university degree is positive and increases the number of university graduates and in contrast to those who have used the permanent exemption of service, there is a decrease in their inclination to education.
Conclusion: The results of the research indicate that the buying military service and as a result of exemption from service in the years between 1998 and 2001 led to a decrease in college education.
