بررسي عوامل مؤثر بر غيبت و فرار از خدمت سربازي (موردمطالعه: مشمولان شهرهاي تهران، اصفهان و تبريز)

Investigating the factors affecting absence and escape from military service(Case study: subjects of Tehran, Isfahan and Tabriz)

زﻣﯿﻨـﻪ و ﻫــﺪف: ﻓـﺎرغ از اﯾﻨﮑــﻪ دوران ﺧـﺪﻣﺖ ﺳــﺮﺑﺎزي داراي ﻣﺰﯾـﺖ ﻫــﺎ ﯾـﺎ ﻣﻀــﺮاﺗﯽ ﺑـﺮاي اﻓــﺮاد و ﺟﺎﻣﻌــﻪ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ، ﻓــﺮار و ﯾــﺎ ﻏﯿﺒــﺖ از آن را ﻣــﯽﺗــﻮان ﺑــﻪ ﻋﻨــﻮان ﯾــﮏ ﻗــﺎﻧﻮنﮔﺮﯾــﺰي و آﺳــﯿﺐ اﺟﺘﻤــﺎﻋﯽ ﻗﻠﻤﺪاد ﻧﻤـﻮد . در اﯾـﻦ ﭘـﮋوﻫﺶ از ﻃﺮﯾـﻖ ﺑﺮرﺳـﯽ آﻣـﺎر ﭘﯿﻤﺎﯾﺸـﯽ ﻣﺸـﻤﻮﻻن داراي ﻏﯿﺒـﺖ و ﺳـﺮﺑﺎزان ﻓــﺮاري، در ﺳــﻪ ﮐــﻼن ﺷــﻬﺮ ﺗﻬــﺮان، اﺻــﻔﻬﺎن و ﺗﺒﺮﯾــﺰ، ﺑــﻪ اﯾــﻦ دو آﺳــﯿﺐ دوران ﺧــﺪﻣﺖ ﺳــﺮﺑﺎزي ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. روش: ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ، ﺗﻮﺻـ ﯿﻔﯽ از ﻧـﻮع ﻫﻤﺒﺴـﺘﮕ ﯽ اﺳـﺖ . ﺟﺎﻣﻌـﻪ آﻣـﺎر ي اﯾـ ﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿـ ﻖ ﺗﻌـﺪاد 68 ﺳـﺮﺑﺎز از اﺳـﺘﺎن ﻫــﺎي ﺗﺒﺮﯾــﺰ، ﺗﻬـﺮان و اﺻــﻔﻬﺎن ﻣــﯽ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ ﮐـﻪ ﺑــﻪﺷــﯿﻮه ﺗﺼــﺎدﻓﯽ از ﮐﺴـﺎ ﻧﯽ ﮐــﻪ ﺧــﺪﻣﺖ ﺳــﺮﺑﺎزي را ﮔﺬراﻧــﺪه و ﯾــﺎ ﻏﯿﺒــﺖ دارﻧــﺪ، ﺑــﻪﻋﻨــﻮان ﻧﻤﻮﻧــﻪ ﺑــﺮاي ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌــﻪ اﻧﺘﺨــﺎب ﺷــﺪﻧﺪ. ﺑــﺮاي ﺳــﻨﺠﺶ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻫــﺎي ﻣﻮردﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌـﻪ ، از ﭘﺮﺳﺸــﻨﺎﻣﻪ اﺳــﺘﻔﺎده ﺷــﺪ. ﺑـﺮاي ﺗﺠﺰﯾــﻪ وﺗﺤﻠﯿــﻞ داده ﻫــﺎ از آزﻣـﻮن رﮔﺮﺳــﯿﻮن ﺑــﺎ اﺳــﺘﻔﺎده از ﻧﺮماﻓﺰارﻫﺎي اﮐﺴﻞ 2007 و ﺷﺎزم 49 و اﻟﮕﻮي ﻻﺟﯿﺖ5 و ﭘﺮوﺑﯿﺖ6 اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﯾﺎﻓﺘــﻪ ﻫــﺎ: ﻧﺘــﺎﯾﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿــﻞ رﮔﺮﺳــﯿﻮن ﻧﺸــﺎن ﻣــﯽدﻫــﺪ ﮐــﻪ ﻋﺎﻣــﻞ اﻋﺘﯿــﺎد ﺑــﻪ ﻣﻮادﻣﺨــﺪر، ﺑــﺮ ﻏﯿﺒــﺖ ﻣﺸﻤﻮﻻن، ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨـﯽ دار ﻣﺜﺒـﺖ و ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿـﺖ در ﺑﺴـﯿﺞ، ﺷـﺮﮐﺖ در اردوﻫـﺎي ﺟﻬـﺎدي و راﻫﯿ ﺎن ﻧـﻮر و ﺗﺤﺼــﯿﻼت، ﺗــﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨــﯽدار ﻣﻨﻔــﯽ داﺷــﺘﻪاﻧــﺪ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨــﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿــﺮ ﺷــﺎﻏﻞ ﺑــﻮدن ﻗﺒــﻞ از ﻣﺸــﻤﻮل ﺑــﻪ ﺧـﺪﻣﺖ ﺷــﺪن، ﺗــﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨــﯽ دار ﻣﺜﺒــﺖ و ﺗﺤﺼــﯿﻼت ﺑـﺎﻻﺗﺮ، ﺗــﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻨــﯽ دار ﻣﻨﻔــﯽ ﺑــﺮ ﻏﯿﺒــﺖ و ﻓــﺮار ﺧﺪﻣﺖ ﺳﺮﺑﺎزي داﺷﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻧﺘﯿﺠﻪ ﮔﯿـ ﺮي: ﺑـﺮاي ﺟﻠـﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﻏﯿﺒـﺖ ﻣﺸـﻤﻮﻻن، ﺳﯿﺎﺳـﺖ ﻫـﺎﯾﯽ ﺟﻬـﺖ ﺗﺴـﻬﯿﻞ در ارﺗﻘـﺎء ﺗﺤﺼـﯿﻼت، ﺗﻘﻮﯾــﺖ ﭘﺎﯾﮕــﺎه ﻫــﺎي ﺑﺴــﯿﺞ و ﺑﺮﮔــﺰاري ﻫﺮﭼــﻪ ﺑﯿﺸــﺘﺮ و ﺑﻬﺘــﺮ اردوﻫــﺎي ﺟﻬــﺎدي و راﻫﯿــﺎن ﻧــﻮر ﺑــﺮاي آﺷﻨﺎﺳــﺎزي ﺟﻮاﻧــﺎن ﺑــﺎ ﺧــﺪﻣﺖ ﺳــﺮﺑﺎزي، ﻣﻮرداﺳــﺘﻔﺎده ﻗــﺮار ﮔﯿــﺮد. ﻫﻤﭽﻨــﯿﻦ، ﺑــﺮاي ﺟﻠــﻮﮔﯿﺮي از ﻏﯿﺒــﺖ و ﻓﺮار ﺳﺮﺑﺎزان، از ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺖ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﺗﺴﻬﯿﻼت ﺧﺪﻣﺘﯽ و رﻓﺎﻫﯽ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﻮد

Background and Aim: Regardless of whether military service has advantages or disadvantages for individuals and society, escaping or absent from it can be considered as a lawlessness and social harm. In this research, have been addressed to these two injuries during military service by examining the survey statistics of absentees and fugitive soldiers in the three metropolises of Tehran, Isfahan and Tabriz. Method: This research is a descriptive co relational research. The statistical population of this research is 68 soldiers from Tabriz, Tehran and Isfahan provinces who were randomly selected from those who have served in the army or are absent as a sample for the research. A questionnaire was used to measure the studied variables. For analysis, regression test was used using Excel 2007 and Shazem 9 software and logit and probit model. Findings: The results of regression analysis indicate that the factor of drug addiction had a significant positive effect on the absence of inmates, positive activity and activity in mobilization, participation in jihadi camps and the path of light and higher education. Also, the variable of being employed before being drafted has a significant positive effect and higher education has a significant negative effect on escaping from military service. Conclusion: To prevent the absence of prisoners, policies should be used to facilitate the increase of education, strengthen the mobilization bases and hold better jihadi camps and the Path of Light to acquaint the youth with military service. Also, using of increasing salary policy of military service to prevent the escape of soldiers.