Assessing agricultural security on the outskirts of hilly cities in the face of climate change and land use in the 2050 (Sanandaj study area)

The importance of food security is one of the most important parameters of the sustainability of a society or ecosystem. There are three basic pillars to sustainability that agricultural security and sustainability is a top priority for any society. With climate change and agricultural use, this security is sensitive and important in mountainous areas where agricultural lands are limited and underdeveloped. In a recent study, in order to identify the trend of land use change and climate change, I studied food security for the 2050 horizon in mountainous areas that have high sensitivity and vulnerability; Therefore, for their study, sentenl2 satellite images were used to extract land user and monthly climatological data for climatic parameters from 2000 to 2020. For the 2050 period, RCP climate modelling and land use change were produced by the method of producing the effect of climate on land use and agricultural cover. The results of climate change showed an increasing trend of rain with high peak frequency and a decrease in snow level and increase in temperature in mountainous areas. These parameters for the input in the LCM model show that the per capita reduction of forests will be seen from 818 square meters to 284 square meters and in the agricultural sector from 410 square meters per capita of rainfed farmers will increase to 652 square meters per person in 2000, despite this increase; Agriculture, the results of the model show that agricultural production in steeper slopes with more severe climate fluctuations will cause less production and more environmental degradation. Aquaculture will be the biggest loser of climate change during 2050; Gardens will also be among the resources and type of agricultural activity during the forecast period. With the bankruptcy of water resources and climate fluctuations, drought and sudden cold of the mountains will be justified, so the per capita in this city will be limited to 25 meters.