الگوي رياضي برآورد آثار خشكسالي بر ارزش افزوده محصولات زراعي و باغي در ايران

A mathematical model for estimating the cost of drought damage on the iranian agricultural sector

In this paper a mathematical model, developed to estimate the cost of drought damages, is presented. The model is applied to the production and precipitation data in the year 1378-79 to provide an estimate of the damages resulted from the drought happened in this particular year. According to this model, the cost of the damage is estimated to be around 11000 billion Rials which is much more than the figures reported by the official authorities. The high cost of the drought postulates a more serious and better drought management in Iran.