نرخ ارز حقيقي تعادلي و عوامل تعيين كننده آن در اقتصاد ايران

Long-Run and Short-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in IRAN

The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in IRAN. The study employs simultaneous co-integrated system in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports followed by structural VECM which provides a practical approach to incorporating long run structural relationship. The finding is that resource balance(capital flows), productivity, tariff and nominal exchange rate influence the real exchange rate for imports and exports in the long-run. Besides the difference of the fundamentals mentioned above, fiscal balance and money supply are found to impart short-run effects on the real exchange rate indices. Our results confirm that resource balance is the main source of real exchange rate fluctuation. The coefficients of adjustment are found to be -0.24 and -0.38 respectively for the real exchange rates for imports and exports. JEL Classification: C32, F31, 055.