همگرايي رفتارهاي باروري در ايران ميزان ، روند و الگوي سني باروري در استان هاي كشور در سال هاي 1351 و 1375

The Convergence of the Fertility Behaviors in Iran:The Provincial Fertility Levels and Patterns during 1972-1996

Using the own-children method applied to the 1986 and 1996 censuses, this paper aims to study provincial fertility levels, trends and patterns in Iran. First, the levels and trends of fertility during 1972-1996 are studied, then the provincial fertility levels, trends and patterns in rural and urban areas are compared with the national level. Due to the lack of data, it is not possible to explain the fertility trends in Iran, but an attempt is made to analyze fertility trends, in terms of competing fertility theories. This study has two main research findigs. I. All provinces and the urban and rural areas have experienced different levels of fertility during the period of the study. This confirms the findings of the other studies in recent years. Provincial fertility differences are relatively comparable with their levels of development, and the differences can partly be explained through `demographic transitionʹ and `modernizationʹ theories. II. The result of the study also demonstrates that despite the provincial fertility levels in Iran, there has been a converging fertility trend during the period of the study; that is, the rise and fall of fertility after the Islamic Revolution have been relatively similar, and provinces and the rural and urban areas have experienced similar fertility trends. It seems that the `small ideal family sizeʹ is an accepted norm in the society, and the futre of fertility in Iran is under the intluenc of the new ideas.