اثرات تغيير نرخ در بازار آزاد و جريان نقد آتي بر ارزش سهام شركت هاي سهامي عام پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران

The main objective of this research is the evaluation of the effects of foreign exchange rate fluctuations in unofficial market (free market) and cash flow on price of company stocks in Tehran stock exchange for the period from March 21, 1998 until March 20 , 2001. Theoretical bases of this research are purchasing power parity and portfolio. Theory on the basis of purchasing power parity and its expansion, we concluded that theory of rate of return and risk parity in stock market can be propounded. On the basis of PPP theory, foreign exchange rate fluctuations should affect the factors which effects shares or stock prices. We found that effect of foreign exchange rate depends on three variables: number of buyers, number of transacted companies and times of purchases, was relatively on average and with relation to other factors. The main points in this article were the result of reversed relationship between stock market variables and foreign exchange rate and gold market variables. In models, which we considered the effects of fluctations of foreign exchange rate and gold prices on stock prices, coefficients of models were moderate and low. But in models in which stock market variables was independent, coefficients were moderate or relatively high. Therefore, we can conclude that foreign exchange rate and gold prices are influenced by stock market more than stock market by these variables.