بررسي رابطه بلندمدت بين صادرات و واردات و آزمون پايداري )Sustainability( كسري حساب جاري در كشورهاي عضو اوپك (1960-1998)

Evaluating Long-Run Relationship between Imports and Exports and Testing Current Account Deficit Sustainability in OPEC Member Countries (1960-1998)

This paper tries to evaluate long-run relationship between imports and exports in OPEC member countries during 1960-1998 as well as to test the foreign deficit sustainability in those countries during the same period of time. The author uses Johansen cointegration method to achieve this purpose. The results indicate that there is no long-run relationship between the mentioned variables in I.R Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Gabon, yet the relationship has been observed in Indonesia, United Arab Emirates, Algeria and Nigeria. This relationship could not be surveyed in Iraq, Libya and Qatar (due to data inaccessibility), and neither in Venezuela and Ecuador (due to stationary variables). Absence of a cointegrated relationship between the variables indicates that the foreign deficit is not sustainable and some changes should be made in trade policies.