بررسي ارتباط پارامترهاي اقليمي و عملكرد گندم ديم با استفاده از مدل گرسيوني (مطالعه موردي : دشت سيلاخور)

The Relationship of Climatic Parameters and Dry-farmed Wheat Harvest Using Regression Model (Case study of SilaKhoor plain)

In this study an attempt has been made to investigate, using a regression equation, the relationship of climatic parameters (independent variables) and increase or decrease in dry-farmed wheat harvest (dependent variable) in SilaKhoor plain, located in Lorestan province. The climatic parameters included in the study are: Spring and Autumn rainfall level, the number of freezing-weather days, the first autumn rainfall and the number of rainy days with a rainfall of above one millimeter during the humid period of they year. The results reveal that there is a direct relationship between the dry-farmed wheat harvest and the variables of spring and autumn rainfall level and the number of rainy days during the humid time of the year, but there is a negative relationship (or correlation) between the dry-farmed wheat hatvest and the variables of the number of freezing-weather spring days and the delay in the first autumn rainfall. Furthermore, according to the indicator of R-squared in the mentional regression, only %47. of the changes in the dependent variable (dry-farmed wheat harvest) could be accounted for by in dependent variables used in the regression model, and %53 of the variation in dry-farmed wheat harvest is accounted for by other parameters.