برآورد ميزان مولد پايه بيماري سرخك در استان فارس به استفاده از اندازه شيوع در فرآيند شاخه‌اي با توزيع تولد پواسن و هندسي‌

Estimation of Outbreak Rate of Measles Disease in Fars Province Using Outbreak Size in Branching Process with Offspring Poisson and Geometric Distribution

General vaccination programmes aim to reduce the spread out of infectious diseases. In medical studies, the disease reproduction means that the average number of disease infections, is essential and is usually tried to be below the unity. If it is one or greater, it means disease outbreak and the revaccination is required. In this paper, we describe a method for monitoring the value of R using surveillance data. The model is based on branching process in which R, is identified with the offspring mean. We derive unconditional likelihood for the offspring mean using data on outbreak size when distributions of offspring mean are Poisson or geometric to estimate the outbreak rate of measles disease in Fars province.