تناسب شبيه‌سازيهاي تصميم‌گيري چند معياري به منظور بررسي تقاضاي آب آبياري‌: مطالعه موردي حوضه آبريز درودزن در استان فارس‌

Suitability of Multiple-Criteria Decision Making Simulations to Study Irrigation Water Demand: A Case Study in the Doroodzan River Basin, Fars Province, Iran

The purpose of this study is analysis the differential impacts of pricing policy for irrigation water in the Doroudzan basin in the south of Iran. For this purpose, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) mathematical programming models were used and then, a simulation model is designed. The analysis of water pricing policy impacts clearly demonstrate that farmers display different behavior patterns related to this natural resource. Also, patterns of consumption vary along the demand curves as a result of increases in the water price. Inelastic price segments of the water demand curves coincide with prices at which the farmers are insensitive to resource price increases, maintaining their usual crop mixes without any substantial change. On the other hand, the elastic segments correspond to those water tariffs that encourage farmers to replace their current crops with others that have lower water requirements. This highlights the importance of implementing a differential analysis to study the impact of water pricing due to the existence of a variety of responses among different groups of farmers. The influence of the elasticity of water demand in reducing water consumption obtained through resource pricing is remarkable. It can be seen that in the elastic segments of the curves the increase in the price of water produces great savings in consumption due to changes in crop mixes, while in the inelastic segments, tariff rises do not result in significant water savings, since farmers are not induced to change their crop plans. This is the reason why the greatest savings are obtained with pricing scenarios in elastic segments of the water demand curves.