بررسي اثر ساختار سني جمعيت بر پس‌انداز جامعه‌

The Effects of Population Age Structure on National Savings

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of changing age distribution on national savings in Iran. We examine this topic within the framework of the life-cycle hypothesis (LCH) based on Ando-Modigliani theory. So, the empirical savings function takes account of changes in the age distribution of the population. This study applies cointegration technique to annual time series data over the period 1966 - 2004. More specifically, an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed to estimate savings function. Moreover, an error correction model (ECM) of national savings behavior is also specified and estimated in order to reveal the short run dynamic adjustments of savings towards its long run equilibrium. We find evidence for a significant relationship between population age Structure and national savings in Iran. In particular, the young (age 15 - 24 years) and elderly (55 years and older) population groups have negative impact on national savings, while the working age population (age 25 -54 years) has positive impact on national savings. However, population between 35 and 44 years of age has relatively higher impact on national savings compared with other population groups. Overall, the results suggest that the demographic structure is an important determinant of national savings in Iran.