رابطه دما و بارندگي و پيش بيني وضعيت اقليم آينده در منطقه تبريز

Study of Relationship Between Temperature and Precipitation in Order to Predict Rainfall Variation in Tabriz Station

Using the climatic forecasting has received more attention in managing drought and flooding. Nowadays, dynamic and statistical models have been established which are enabling to predict climate changes in advance. It is well known that there is a negative correlation between temperature and precipitation as well as the long term effect of temperature variation on rainfall values. Therefore, it should be possible to predict precipitation using temperature variations over time. The relationship between temperature and rainfall as well as the long term effect of temperature on the rainfall used to forecast the precipitation behavior at the Tabriz Synoptic Station. Temperature and precipitation data recorded by Tabriz Synoptic Station from 1951 to 2001 was subjected to time series models. The results not only proved the negative relationship in long term but also showed short term relationship between temperature and precipitation. The cross correlation function (CCF) graphs were drawn based on data obtained from CCF of mean, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation over 50 years. The results also indicated that the prolonged effect of temperature on the precipitation extend approximately two months. Some equations were introduced to predict precipitation based on temperature changes over time.