مقايسه روشهاي مختلف جهت پيش بيني واردات ادويه جات در ايران مطالعه موردي دارچين، هل و زردچوبه

The comparison of different methods for forecasting spices imports in Iran Case study: cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma

The aim of this study is to compare different quantitative forecasting methods including regression and non-regression for forecasting spices import such as cinnamon, cardamoms and curcuma. data for this reason was collected from foreign trade statistics year book of Islamic Republic of Iran during the period of 2004-2010. Based on results of Wallis-Moore Test, curcuma imports are stochastic and cannot be forecasted. In addition, the results of comparison between different methods show that ARMA is the best method in forecasting cinnamon and Cardamoms imports. The forecasting results indicate that cinnamon import will have more fluctuation in the future. Planning for import and quota is a management implication of this study.