اندازه گيري ريسك كشت محصولات زراعي در استان همدان با استفاده از برنامه ريزي رياضي تحت شرايط ريسك و نبود قطعيت

Risk determination of cultivated crops in Hamadan province with use mathematical programming with attention to risk and uncertainty conditions

Risk conditions and uncertainty in determination of optimal pattern of cultivation in agricultural sector are inevitable. In this research, taking advantage of quadratic stochastic programming model (QSPM) and MOTAD Programming in first step, we are to determine optimum pattern of cultivation for cultivated crops with attention to Risk factor and then we will specify risky crops and the low risk in the Hamadan province during 1999- 2004 finally we try to compare those used techniques in this article. The results indicate that wheat produced by irrigated farming in addition to sugar beet and potato have the highest risk while sun flower has the lowest risk among the selected crops of Hamadan Province. Wheat produced by dry farming does not show any reaction towards risk conditions and uncertainty. It is not recommended to cultivate barely and corn in Hamadan province.