بررسي علل تطابق نيافتن مدلهاي اقتصادي رفتار اوپك در بلند مدت از ديدگاه تحولات بازار نفت و ويژگيهاي اين سازمان

An Investigation into the Incompatibility of Economic Models of OPECʹs Behaviour in the Long-run from the Point of View of the Evolution in the Crude Oil Market and the Basic Features of This Organization

Most models developed during the past 30 years to explain OPECʹS behaviour have addressed this issue only from a mathematical point of view and within the framework of microeconomics. In this paper, the economic models of OPECʹs behaviour are introduced and the performance of this organization is examined by using these models. The results show that any of the said models can explain OPECʹs behaviour in the short-run but the explanation of OPECʹs behaviour in the long-run may not be possible due to factors such as the followings: structural change in the global oil market during the 48 years of OPECʹs life (e.g. diminishing the monopolistic power of oil companies, non-OPEC supplies and the resulting demand fall in OPECʹs oil, the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the reduced level of excess production capacity), economic and political instability in the five major oil producers of crude oil in the Persian Gulf countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and UAE), which may adversely affect OPECʹs performance. Moreover, in the long-run, the heterogeneity of OPEC member countries has been responsible in the failure of purely economic models to explain OPECʹs behaviour. It may be possible to explain OPECʹs behaviour in the long-run by the utilization of combined economic models of OPECʹs behaviour taking into account the political and economic conditions of OPECʹs major producers as well as the conditions of oil reserves and the production capacity forecasts in countries holding the main oil reserves.