تاثير اجراي پروژه هاي نفت و گاز بر حجم و توزيع جمعيت ( در منطقه گازي پارس جنوبي)

THE EFFECT OF IMPLEMENTATION OF OIL AND GAS PROJECTS UPON THE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION

This study examines the effects of the investments in Oil and Gas projects upon the distribution and composition of the population in the oil region of Southern Pars, in Bushehr province. To this end the population of four townships-Dashti, Kangan, Dair and Jam were studied and analyzed. The study was carried out in three parts. In the first part, the structures, composition and distribution of the population of the region and its changes were examined, during the last decade [1375 census to 1385 census - (1996-2006)]. Great increases in the urbanization ratio indices, multitude and percentage of the active population (15-64 of age), sex ratio, decrease of dependency ratio and disruption in sex ratio of the active age groups are events occurred in the population under study. All of the above changes are the result of job attractions created by investment in Oil and Gas project of the region. In the second part, population movements (natural and local movements) were studied. The occurrence of the migration rate of 4.5 percent is a certain result of the investment in the industry. In the third part, estimation is made for the populations of the townships under the study up to the year 1405(2026). In regard of migration effect on the composition and size of the population, projection was made according to 3 hypotheses: investment stoppage, 50% implementation of regional projects and the full implementation of the projects. According to the third hypothesis the population of the region will be increased to around half a million.