آثار نا متقارن تغييرات حجم پول بر فعاليت هاي حقيقي اقتصادي در ايران

Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Shocks on Economic activities: the Case ofJran

In this paper, the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks (according to negative and positive shocks) on GDP have been investigated by cointegration analysis in Iran economy during the 1338-1384. The results regarding the main hypothesis of the research, and based on asymmetry of positive and negative shocks, showed negative shocks are more effective than positive ones in the economic growth. Monetary imbalances also have asymmetric effects on economic growth so that the coefficient of excess money supply is not significant in any specifications, whereas excess demand have a negative significance on economic growth. Therefore, although policy makers can slightly stimulate short run economic growth by increasing unexpected money, they must pay a higher cost in the long run to decrease inflation.