بررسي نوسانات دمايي با استفاده از مدل هاي سري هاي زماني و توزيع احتمالاتي مطالعه موردي شهرستان كرمانشاه

Investigation of Temperature Fluctuations by Using of Time Series and Probability Distribution (Case Study: Kermanshab)

Particular position of Iran and Kermanshah Province as well as the relationship of temperature with other climatic parameters and temperature increase at two recent decades have different reflections. As most recent studies show, the worldwide increase of temperature trend cause meny problems. Therefore, planning for future trends is required. Present study has used annual temperature in Kermanshah station (t 955-2005) for time series modeling (ARIMA method) and also probability distribution to investigate climate change in Kennanshah. Polynomial pattern of annual temperature. Was then tested Normal distribution was proved as the model expected. By using time series, the 10 year temperature of Kermanshah was estimated. It is expected according to the models findings that during the last 10 year period the temperature of this city has increased. The amount ofthis increase was estimated at 0.03 Tʹc