رابطه متغيرهاي كلان اقتصادي با ميزان فروش بيمه نامه هاي درمان مكمل: 82 - 1369

The Relationship between Sales of Complementary Health Insurancepolices and Macroeconomic Variables: 1990-2003

Introduction: This research follows the relationship between macro economic variable (such as inflation rate, national income percapita & unemployment rate) on sale rate of complementary insurance policies between 1369:1 until 1382:4 .with use of quarterly adjustment data Methods: In this research, VAR model has been used and the co-integration with stationary variables have been accounted and analyzed. At this stage, firstly the co-integration variables of the model are known, and then, the structure of the model and the number of optimal orders are identified. The next step, however, determines the number of co-integration vector of model. Results: The results from the Dicky-Fuller test generalized and Johanson co-integration test shows that total data is in the 5 percentage level integrated from the degree one, and there is no vector co- integration between them, meanwhile, the results of impulse- response from each of model variables show that income percapita both in short term & long term has the most affect on the sale rate of insurance policies. The relationship between inflation rate & health insurance in short term is positive and in long- term is negative, and unemployment rate has positive affect on health insurance both in short term & long term. Conclusion: Macro economic variables related to the sale rate of complementary health insurance