بررسي آثار توليد بخشهاي صنعت ، كشاورزي و خدمات بر تورم در اقتصاد ايران

Analysis of the Production Effects in Industrial, Agricultural and Services Sectors on Inflation in Iranian Economy

There arc all extensive research work done on inflation and its causes both in developing and developed countries. There exists a unique understanding about the concept of inflation but not a general agreement on its caUSLS amongst economists. In this study, data relating to the period 135J-13R4 have been used. To examine the effects of production in industrial, agricultural and services sectors on inflation, econometric methods are utilized, i.c., Autoregressive Distribution Lags (ARDL) and Vector lrror Correction (VEe). The results following ARDL imply that each 10 per cent increase in the rate of liquidity induces (,4 per cent increase in the general price level. Moreover, based 011 VEe method. It is shown that the hypothesis uf monciarv inflation can not bc accepted in Iranian economy. The ARDL model also implies that the increase in production would lead to a decrease ill inllation in Iranian economy as compared to the increase in production of industrial sector. In other words. it can be argued that to control the inflation in Iranian econOITI,Y it is necessary for the Government to perform higher guidance and regulatory role in her economic policies towards expanding production services and agricultural sectors