كاربرد فرايند تصادفي نرخ رشد جمعيت در پيش بيني احتمالي جمعيت

APPLING THE STOCHASTIC PROCESS OF POPULATION GROWTH RATE IN PROBABLE POPULATION PROJECTION

Introduction: In order to forecast a population in the mathematical method, the equation Pnil = Pt(l +r)" or Pf+n =Prer" is used. The population growth rate, r is usually assumed to be a constant and non-stochastic quantity. In a more general case, it is possible to forecast a population through the equation Pl+n = Pt (1 + rn t) where r(+jʹs are Variable but non- stochastic quantities so that it could be possible to determine all the annual population growth rates (rl+n,K ,rl+],rt) based on a math­ematical equation between these rates. In this study, the population is projected with stochastic growth rates. Methods: The annual population growth rates are considered to be the stochastic variables which arc interrelated according to a stochastic process. The most important feature of this method is that the population projection stochastic confidence intervals can be constructed with consideration of the uncertainty factor in the population projections. Results: Stochastic projections on the countryʹs total population have been presented here up to 2006 using this method and the census results of the year 1996. Conclusion: According to the agreed estimates of probable projection for population and regarding the census results of the year 2006, it can be said this population projection is a suitable and valid one which can be used in the years between two censuses.