ارزيابي اقتصادي و تحليل ريسك معدن مس سونگون

Economic Evaluation and Risk Analysis of Sungun Copper Mine

In feasibility studies, several teehno-eeonomical aspects are reviewed. Cost items have a considerable role on range of variation of project outputs and analysis of distribution of their relative share is necessary. Economical and financial evaluation is on the basis of assumptions and variables which are estimated under uncertainty conditions and therefore, sensitivity and risk analysis of project economical out put should be evaluated. In this research, with the help of Excel and Comfar software, for economical and financial analysis of Sungun copper mine, a model was developed and run considering scenarios for a certain variation of expected value of critical variables. On the basis of cost analysis results, mill plant and mine have the greatest share of capital cost with 41% and 32%, respectively. From operating costs point of view, mill plant (52%) and mine (34%) also have the greatest share. Also it was observed that internal rate of return (IRR) is affected more by concentrate price comparing to other relevant factors. In this regard, mill recovery plant, exchange rate, capital costs, mine overall slope angle and operational costs can be considered in the next degrees of importance. Finally, according to risk analysis, it was concluded that with a 90% level of confidence, range of range of IRR is more than 9.32% and less than 19.56%.