شكست ساختاري: مورد مصرف گاز طبيعي و رشد اقتصادي در ايران

Structural Break: the Case of Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran

According to new econometric considerations, existence of structural breaks and regime shifts can affect the relationships of macroeconomic variables and not paying attention to them may result in unreliable and misleading conclusions. Therefore, considering structural breaks and regime shifts in examination of the empirical relationship between total consumption of natural gas and economic growth is an important issue. In the present article an attempt is made to study the relationship between total consumption of natural gas and economic growth, with an emphasis on structural breaks, over the period of 1967 to 2005. To this end, Zivot & Andrews unit root test is performed to determine the structural shifts endogenously, while Gregory-Hansen co integration test is carried out to study the long-run relationship between total consumption of natural gas and economic growth with an emphasis on structural breaks. The findings suggest that given the structural break, there is a positive long- run relationship between total consumption of natural gas and economic growth in Iran.