برآورد پتانسيل برق بادي و اثر بهره گيري از آن در صرفه جويي سوخت فسيلي در ايران

Wind energy exploitation and fossil fuel saving in Iran

Iran has invested substantial amounts on renewable energies including wind power. However, allocation of 7.3 billion Euros in annual subsidies to fossil electricity generation acts as a major barrier against use of renewable energies. All the same, installed capacity of wind electricity stands at 128 MW in early 2008, with total generation of 307 Giga Watt Hour of electricity and savings of 425000 barrels of oil saving in Iranian power sector and reduction of 1 million ton of polutants during 1994-2005. Using the real monthly wind data for all provinces of Iran and applying the Weibull density function for usable wind potential, the wind electricity potential of the country is estimated at 3.6 GW, while there are estimates of as high as 6 GW. Based on current energy policies the estimated values for NPV and IRR of wind projects in Gilan, Sistan and Baluchistan and South Khorasan provinces confirm the economic viability of wind energy in these provinces. This study thus concludes that abolishing fossil subsidy and adopting a market-oriented approach could lead to the realization of 3.6 to 6 GW of wind energy capacity. Such a level of wind energy production will lead to an annual saving of 47 to 84 million barrels of fossil fuel (127000 b/d to 230000 b/d) in the Iranian power sector