الگوها، پيش بيني ها و واقعيت ها در تقاضاي نيروي كار

Models, Predictions and Realities in Labor Demand

In order to examine the future needs of Iranian youth for education and employment, the Iranian Management & Planning Organization (MPO) in collaboration with the "Institute for Research and Planning in Higher Education" (IRPHE) have undertaken a comprehensive research project of "Human Resource Development Planning and Policy Making"(2000-2009). The aim of the project was to recognize the status of countryʹs human resources and to study the possibilities of enhancing the existing capabilities, given the real needs of the society, specially, of the labor market. In this paper, we compare the results of those projects with the facts of General Population and Housing Census (2006). Those projects underestimate professional human resources and overestimate total human resources. Finally, we may believe these studies are not official forecasting or modeling of labor demand but they may be categorized as futuristic studies, the models toward which we must limit our expectations.