بررسي اثر كسري بودجه دولت بر مصرف و سرمايه گذاري بخش خصوصي در ايران

The Effects of Budget Deficits on Private Consumption and Investment in Iran

The goal of this paper is to analyze the effects of budget deficits on private consumption and investment in Iran during the period 1342 to 1384. Budget deficits and the ways of financing have significant effects on the economy. Budget deficits can have an effect on the two major components of the aggregate demand, private consumption and private investment. The total effects of the budget deficits can be decomposed into the primary and secondary effects. The primary effects of the deficits are attributed to the causes of the deficits while the secondary effects are related to the ways of deficit financing. Theoretically, the sign of the total effects might be positive, negative or zero. This paper applies the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration analysis in estimating the long run relationship between variables. The results indicate that although the effect of budget deficits on private consumption is positive but there is no long run and robust relationship between the variables. Moreover, the findings show that there is a long run relationship between budget deficits and private investment. Moreover, budget deficits have a negative effect on private investment.