رابطه تورم و رشد نقدينگي در اقتصاد ايران؛ گسست يا پايداري؟

Relationship between Money Growth and Inflation in Iran: Interruption or Stability?

The quantity theory of money is a theory emphasizing that there is a one-to-one long run relationship between money growth and inflation. This means a higher rate of money growth leads to a higher rate of inflation. However, during the recent years, the stylized facts of the Iranian economy show that there is a divergence between the growth of money and the rate of inflation. This stylized facts lead to the opinion that an interruption has occurred between the growth of money and inflation rate. The main objective of the paper is to investigate the relationship between the growth of money and inflation rate using the annual data over the period 1350-2005. The empirical model used to examine the relation between the growth of money and inflation is a model that stemmed from the quantity theory of money and is developed to incorporate expectations based on the Phillips curve. The results confirm that there is a stable relationship between the growth of money and inflation rate in the long run. More specifically, one percent increase in the growth of money will increase inflation by 0.89 percentage point in the long run.