برآورد آثار كمي اجراي موافقتنامه تجاري اكو (ECOTA) بر توسعه تجارت ايران

Estimating the Quantitative Effects of ECO Trade Agreement (ECOTA) on the Trade Development of Iran

This paper investigates the quantitative Effects of the ECO Trade agreement (ECOTA) on trade development of Iran using the ECO countries data. To this end, the amount of tariff reductions affecting Iranʹs trade (exports and imports) within region is calculated and analyzed. The results indicate that the agreement has contributed to an expansion in Iranʹs exports in the ECOTA framework. The implementation of tariff reductions will increase Iranʹs exports to only Pakistan about 1.27 million of U.S. dollar in 2008 relative to its tariff in the base year (2003), while ECO membersʹ imports from Iran will not be substituted by imports from other regions. However, the implementation of tariff reductions in the ECOTA framework will also increase Iranʹs imports from ECO countries 8.99 millions of U.S. dollar. Since Iranʹs imports substitution price elasticity from the ECO countries is near to zero, despite of discriminatory tariff reductions, Iran will not substitute its imports originating from ECO by importing from other countries. Indeed, an 18.2 percent tariff reductions will increase total imports of Iran from ECO countries 1.6 percent. K