تغييرات ساختاري در شركتهاي بين المللي نفتي در پي تحولات بازار نفت

Structural Changes in International Oil Companies Resulting from the Developments in International Oil Market

Since the early twentieth century, the global oil industry has experienced significant developments. Structural changes in the IOCs cannot be satisfactorily studied without due attentions to the fundamental changes in the global oil market. These changes act in dual ways: New developments in IOCs strategies may not only affect the developments in oil industry but are being affected by these developments. Speculations regarding the future trends of developments in IOCs necessarily require a historical analysis of their policy formulations, strategies and activities. . This paper examines these developments during two time periods. First, the period in which the market was not concerned about the possible downward trend in the crude oil supply, and secondly, the period which was characterized by supply securities among major oil consumers. The first period has experienced an increasing power and dominance of IOCs, while during the second period a kind of competitive relationship among existing institutions in international crude oil market has been observed. The current market condition is characterized by a downward trend in major oil reserves worldwide, which implies a serious decrease in the expected supply of crude oil. This together with an expected upward shift in crude oil demand, an expected sharp increase in the price of crude oil and its consequential impact on the price of natural gas, an increase in the supply of renewable energies, and more importantly an increasing role of derivatives trading in oil and gas paper markets have necessarily forced IOCs to develop new strategies and possible structural changes. It is shown that the examinations of these developments are of prime theoretical importance and practical significance particularly for major oil exporters.