بررسي ويژگيهاي ادوار تجاري در اقتصاد ايران در دوره 1385-1338

Investigation of Business Cycles Characteristics in Iran: 1338-1385

After the Islamic Revolution and particularly in the years following the end of the imposed war, the necessity of economic planning was realized more than ever. In this regard, an understanding of the basic characteristics of business cycles (properties of GDP in particular) is significant. The purpose of this research work is to investigate the characteristics of Iranian business cycles such as its duration, amplitude and steepness. First, using Hodrick-Prescott Filter (HP) and detrending the real GDP series, four business cycles during 1338-1385 periods are identified and then by using specific indices, the characteristics of the business cycles in that period are investigated. Findings of this research show that the average duration of expansion phases is longer than the periods of recession.