شناسايي تكانه هاي قيمت نفت عرضه و تقاضاي كل در اقتصاد ايران با استفاده از VAR ساختاري

Identifying Impact of Aggregate Demand, Supply and Oil Price Shocks on Iranʹs Economy: Results Using a Structural VAR

This article studies the dynamic effects of oil price, supply and demand shocks on Iranʹs GDP and inflation. It uses an AD-AS model to identify a structural VAR for Iran. Unlike the standard Blanchard-Quah decomposition, the method proposed in this paper does not assume the correlation between demand and supply shocks to be zero. The study is based on quarterly data for the period 1367:1 tol386:4. This paper finds the oil income shocks explain 0/5-1/5 per cent of the variation in output. If demand shocks have an effect on the aggregate supply curve, in the short term, aggregate demand shocks can account for approximately 36 per cent of the forecast-error variance in output .On the other hand, in the long run, aggregate demand shocks account for approximately 72/9 per cent of changes in inflation. The variance decompositions also indicated that aggregate supply shocks are the most important sources of output fluctuations in Iran. JEL Classification: E2,Q43,E31,C1