بررسي رابطه غيرخطي ميان درآمدهاي نفتي ورشد اقتصادي با استفاده از روش حد آستانه اي (مورد ايران)

The Impact of Oil Revenues on Economic Growth: Evidence from Nonlinear Models Using Threshold Error Correction in Iran

This paper considers the nonlinear effect of oil revenues on economic growth by applying the threshold error correction model and using data for the period 1338-1386 in Iran. The study finds that the pass through of increases in oil revenues to economic growth becomes weaker as the rate of increase of revenues goes up. The limit rate of increase in oil revenues, beyond which it loses its positive impact on GDP growth is 37 per cent. In addition, the lower the rate of increase in oil revenues the greater its impact on GDP growth, indicating an inverse U-shaped relationship between the two variables. The above results confirm the existence of a resource curse characterized by rent seeking behavior and reductions in productivity, particularly during periods of high growth in oil revenues. JEL Classification: 013, P24, Q32