تحليل حساسيت بازار گاز طبيعي اروپاي غربي با رويكرد نظريه بازي ها

Sensitivity Analysis of West European Natural Gas Market: A Game Theory Approach

One of the issues in natural gas exports is appropriate pricing given competitive market conditions. One possible method for the study of the behavior of suppliers in the market is Game Theory. This paper attempts to study the West European natural gas market using a Game Theory approach. Here, we use the logical relations within the game matrix of a pricing strategy, between Russia (as the biggest competitor for Iran in the European natural gas market) and her competitors with the assumption that Iran will have the same behavior as other competitors, in order to construct the model using panel data. Based on this model, we performed a sensitivity analysis and concluded that so long as the difference between natural gas price of Iran and Russia is more than 2.6 $ per Cubic Meter, Russia will not demonstrate any marked reaction thus allowing these competitors to protect their market shares. JEL Classification: C3, C5, D4, N7