ارزيابي و برآورد ظرفيت هاي تجاري كالايي دوجانبه ايران با كشورهاي عضو اتحاديه اروپا

Evaluation of Bilateral Trade Potentials Between Iran and EU Countries

This article is intended to assess the capacity and trade potential in products between Iran and 25 European Union member countries by using 4 indices of Drysdale, Cosines, Trade Potential and Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for the period of 1999-2003. Some findings of the research are as follows: The estimation of Iranʹs export potential for exporting to the European Union members during the period of 1999-2003 shows that the most part of Iranʹs export potential belongs to Germany with an annual amount of $1/24billion. Countries such as Italy, Netherlands, France and Belgium have the next high ranks respectively. The least value of Iranʹs export potential with an amount of $5 million belongs to newly acceded countries to European Union including Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia, Slovak, Estonia and Malta. The most part of the Iranʹs unused export potential belongs to UK (89%) and next ranks belong to Netherlands, Finland and Portugal. As regards Iranʹs import potential, the highest rank belongs to Germany ($317 billion) and next ranks are for Italy, France and Belgium