شكست ساختاري، مصرف انرژي و رشد اقتصادي ايران (1346-1384)

Structural Breaks, Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Iran (1967-2005)

Understanding the different aspects of the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth can outstandingly help to adopt appropriate policies in energy sector. Structural breaks and regime shifts may affect the above relationship. Therefore, it is important to consider structural breaks and regime shifts in empirical analysis. In this paper, the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is analyzed in the presence of structural breaks. The empirical models are specified and estimated using Iranʹs time series data during 1967-2005 period. To this end, unit root tests proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992) are first used to identify structural breaks found endogenously and then the Gregory-Hansen cointegration test, which allows strctural breaks in time series, is employed to estimate the long-run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. The results show that in the long run, there is a positive and significant relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Iran.