كليدواژه :
شاخص SPI , الگوهاي گردش عمومي جو , ريزگرداني , LARS- WG , خشكسالي , شاخص دهك
چكيده لاتين :
The effects of climate change, especially due to the increase of greenhouse gasses, have caused lots of problems that have affected different sections of society. One of the most important effects is the increase of natural disasters such as flood, drought, tropical cyclones, raising sea level, dust storm, etc. Drought and flood are the most prevalent of these disasters in Iran. Because of the geographical location of Iran and the synoptic systems that affect this region, it is clear that dryness is one of the characteristics of this region, and drought is one of the most important of natural disaster that affect the country. Drought can affect the different sectors of society such as water resources, agriculture, industry, economy, health, etc therefore drought monitoring is necessary for future planning. For this purpose, the climate data should be simulated for future periods by using outputs of Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Model. In this paper precipitation data during 2010 to 2039 is simulated by downscaling via LARS-WG model. Then, drought situation is estimated according to DI and SPI. The results of the study show that during the next 30 years, drought conditions will be increasing in Iran, and it confirms climate changes in the region. In addition, many parts of Iran will experience severe and extreme drought in 2011, 2025, 2032, 2034, 2035, 2039, and among these years, 2039 will bring more critical drought situation.
