رابطه ي تكانه هاي نفتي و رشد اقتصادي كشورهاي عضو اوپك: آيا اين رابطه نامتقارن است؟

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in OPEC Countries: Is the Relationship Asymmetric?

Oil income accounts for the lionʹs share of export earnings of OPEC member countries. Given the high level of volatility of the International oil market in the last four decades, it is important to understand how upward and downward price volatility impacts economic growth of these countries for optimal policy setting. This paper examines the asymmetric relationship between oil revenues and output growth in oil-exporting countries, applying a dynamic panel framework and two different measures of oil shocks. The main results of this study confirm the stylized facts that in heavily oil-dependent countries lacking the institutional mechanisms for de-linking fiscal expenditures from current revenues, oil revenue shocks tend to affect the output in asymmetric and nonlinear ways. The findings suggest that output growth is adversely affected by downward oil price shocks, while oil booms or upward oil price shocks have a limited role in stimulating economic growth. The findings have practical policy implications for macroeconomic policy making. The use of stabilization and savings funds and economic diversification are crucial to minimize the harmful effects of oil booms and busts.