خلع سلاح حزب الله و بحران سياسي در لبنان

DISARMAMENT OF HEZBOLLAH AND THE NEW POLITICAL CRISIS IN LEBANON

The political crisis in Lebanon during the past three years has remained one of the critical issues in the regional and international scenes. This article attempts to examine the short-term and long-term causes of the political crisis in Lebanon. It proposes that demographic changes in favor of the Shias, increased power of Hezbollah, the multi-ethnic structure of Lebanese society, the type of government and allocation of political power are amongst the long-term causes. The 1559 and 1701 UN resolutions, the 33-day war between Israel and Hezbollah, and the assassination of Rafiq Harii are the contributing elements in the short-term. The paper suggests that the increased power and clout by Hezbollah is a critical factor that needs to be addressed if any long-term solution to the Lebanese crisis is to be found.