ارايه مدل پيش بني سود با استفاده از تركيب نسبتهاي مالي

Presenting the Model for Prospecting Future Profits by Using the Financial Ratios Combination of Accepted Companies in Tehranʹs Stock Exchange

This thesis surveys the possibility of prospecting future profits by using the financial ratios combination of accepted companies in Tehranʹs stock exchange. Because of this reason the eight financial ratios as fallows; Growth in Sales (GSALES), Growth in Net Operating Assets (GNOA), Return on Net Operating Assets (RNOA), Operating Assets Turnover (ATO), Operating Liabilities Leverage(OLLEV), Profit Margin (PM), Advertising costs intensity (ADV) and Research and Development costs intensity (RD) were selected as independent variables and on the other hand the variable of Logarithm Net Operating Assets (LOGNOA) was considered as a control variable. So the eight spillover hypotheses were suggested to prove that there is a meaningful relation between the operating profit and each of these mentioned ratios. The research was being surveyed within a decade from the years ^ ^vv to ^ ^AVThe select sample contained 55 companies which were elected from among accepted ones in Tehranʹs stock exchange. The research scheme contains fitting of Regression model within the years ^vv to forecasting the operating profit in and lastly surveying accuracy of forecasting by comparing actual estimated values through the pair sampling test, the used statistical method in this research was the analysis of solidarity through Regression by using PLS technique (the least squares combined), which was done in two processes; the single variable analysis and the multiple Regression. All tests were done by means of the SPSS p °th writing) and the EVIEWS (*th writing) softwares. According to the obtained results from the research hypothesesʹ test, it was confirmed that there is a meaningful relation between the logarithm net operating assets (control variable), sales growth, return on net operating assets, operating assets turnover, research and development costs intensity and operating profit. Also according to the results of the multiple regression and the step by step method, the main hypothesis of this research was confirmed which means that it is absolutely possible to prospect the future profits by using the financial ratios combination of productive companies that are accepted in Tehranʹs stock exchange.