مدل بهينه سازي بهره برداري از مخزن سد كارده با استفاده از برنامه ريزي تصادفي بازه اي چند مرحله اي

An Optimization Model for Kardeh Reservoir Operation Using Interval- Parameter, Multi-stage, Stochastic Programming

The present study investigates water allocation of Kardeh Reservoir to domestic and agricultural users using an Interval Parameter, Multi-stage, Stochastic Programming (IMSLP) under uncertainty. The advantages of the method include its dynamics nature, use of a pre-defined policy in its optimization process, and the use of interval parameter and probability under uncertainty conditions. Additionally, it offers different decision-making alternatives for different scenarios of water shortage. The required data were collected from Khorasan Razavi Regional Water Organization and from the Water and Wastewater Co. for the period 1988-2007. Results showed that, under the worst conditions, the water deficits expected to occur for each of the next 3 years will be 1.9, 2.55, and 3.11 million cubic meters for the domestic use and 0.22, 0.32, 0.75 million cubic meters for irrigation. Approximate reductions of 0.5, 0.7, and 1 million cubic meters in the monthly consumption of the urban community and enhanced irrigation efficiencies of about 6, 11, and 20% in the agricultural sector are recommended as approaches for combating the water shortage over the next 3 years.