منابع نوسان شكاف قيمت محصولات كشاورزي(مطالعه موردي گوشت گوساله و ماكيان)

Iidentifying the Causes of Agricultural Price Gap Fluctuations (For Beef & Veal, Poultry)

اين پژوهش به بررسي و شناخت منابع نوسان شكاف قيمت گوشت گوساله و ماكيان مي‌پردازد. براي اين منظور از داده هاي سالانه ي (86-1380) مربوط به محصولات منتخب استفاده شده است. روش بكار رفته بر پايه ي مدل شناخت منابع نوسان ليفرت طراحي شده است كه از قيمت هاي تجاري (قيمت داخلي و قيمت جهاني) به همراه نرخ ارز و نرخ هاي تعرفه ي وارداتي استفاده مي كند. نتايج بدست آمده بيانگر آن است كه در بازار گوشت گوساله طي سال هاي 82-1380 و 86-1384 تغييرات نرخ تعرفه و طي سال هاي 84-1382 قيمت هاي جهاني بيش ترين سهم را در نوسان شكاف قيمت داشته است. هم چنين در بازار گوشت ماكيان قيمت هاي جهاني طي سال هاي 85-1380 و نرخ تعرفه ي طي سال هاي 83-1382 و 86 -1385 اين نقش را به عهده داشته اند. عامل مهم ديگر بر نوسان هاي شكاف قيمت، انتقال ناقص تغييرات قيمت هاي تجاري است كه اين انتقال عمدتا نه به خاطر سياست گذاري بلكه به خاطر زير ساخت توسعه نيافته بازار مي‌باشد. نتايج بدست آمده حاكي از آنست كه مهم ترين منابع نوسان در شكاف قيمت ها، قيمت هاي جهاني و نرخ هاي تعرفه مي باشند.

This survey illustrates approaches of fluctuation of agricultural prices, price gaps between domestic and world producer price. Present finding identify and introduce sources of fluctuation of beef & veal, Poultry contain great importance. Fluctuations of them were calculated during (2001-2007). The method is based on Decomposition method developed by Liefert which uses the domestic producer prices and world prices from exchange rate and import tariff rate. The most important consequences apply in beef & veal market for (2001-2003); (2005-2007) changes in tariff rate had the most contribution in volatility price gap. Although during (2003-2005) world prices had played this role. In poultry market world prices for (2001-2006) and tariff rate for (2003-2004) and (2006-2007) had dramatically occurred. Also an important factor that effects on price gap is about incomplete transmission of changes in trade prices of domestic producer prices and world prices, where the incomplete transmission is mainly caused not by policy but rather by undeveloped market infrastructure. In the end, it should be mentioned that the most important sources in price volatilities is about world prices and tariff rates that the country has the acceptance of world price. But, it can have effect on changes in tariff rate, and there should appear main strategy which it will be caused by avoidance of daily life strategies in tariff and looking ahead to price rate systematizing. Also, long run ambition in strategies should be noticed.