تحليل نيمه كمي نامتقارن فازي منطبق بر استراتژي سازماني مديريت ريسك

Fuzzy asymmetrical semi-quantitative project analysis in accordance with organizational strategy of risk management

In recent years, risk management has become an inherent part of project management process, particularly in the large and complex projects. Various standards and procedures have been developed for its optimization. Because of short-comings in the quantitative analysis regarding increasing flexibility and speedy trend of risk management,also dependency of the qualitative analysis on linguistic variables in determining risk priorities, and not considering the organizational strategy in risk management, this paper,using fuzzy logic in analysis of linguistic variables,tries to develop a new framework for evaluating risk project based on fuzzy asymmetrical semi-quantilative analysis in accordance with organizational strategy,in order to identify and quantify the relationship between risk indices and their effects on risk projects. The research methodology was quantitative, and the data were collected through interview, observation in a case study of mining petroleum project. The statistical included senior managers in oil industry. The resultes showed that the current approaches in qualitative risk didnʹt have a realistic attitude in prioritizing important risks. In the addition it showed that an approach based on organizational strategy is necessary.