كليدواژه :
تورم , توليد بخشي , (ARDL) , نقدينگي , انتظارات تورمي
چكيده لاتين :
Inflation is best known issue which all countries has been facing it; so that nowadays, a big sector of economic texts is allocated to the process of development, control and negative effect of inflation. Undoubtedly, control of inflation and implementation of anti inflation policies in the economy, has some costs, which one of the most important of them are posted in production changes. Accordingly, in this research it is tried to study the effects of production increase in agriculture, service and industry sectors on inflation in Iran economy by Autoregressive Distributed Lag method (ARDL) method for the period of1353-84.
The results of model shows that each %10 increase in agriculture sector production leads to %3.3decrease in public price level (inflation). This figure is so trivial for industry sector (around %6). Consequently, to control the inflation in Iran economy, it is necessary that government, in its economic policies, focus more on price and production expansion in agriculture and service sectors. On the other hand, we can see, in short term, expected inflation has more effect than inflation of fluidity growth rate. Therefore, the government must reduce inflation expectations for controlling the inflation in short term. In this research, the hypothesis of inflation monetarism is not confirmed in Iran economy.
