بررسي عوامل تاثيرگذار بر تقاضاي كل واردات ايران تحت شرايط محـدوديـت ارزي

The Study of Effective Facrots on Iranian Aggregate Import Demand under a Foreign Exchange Constraint

In this paper, aggregate import demand function is estimated under a foreign exchange constraint for the period of 1959-2007, using Engle-Granger and Vector Autoregressive Model. The estimations in the short run by OLS method indicate that the import function is highly elastic with respect to relative import price and then to foreign exchange receipts. Also, estimation of model in the long-term using Engle- Granger test shows a unique equilibrium relationship between the demand for import and its major determinants. The results obtained from the impulse response function using VAR method indicate that it takes at least nine years to adjust the impacts of shocks to each dependent variable. The results of variance decomposition show that relative price and foreign exchange receipts have the highest relative importance on explaining of import demand. Negative coefficient estimates of dummy variables also show the reduced effectiveness of this period on the aggregate import.